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Prediction for CME (2017-09-10T16:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2017-09-10T16:00Z
CME Note: Associated with X8.2 flare from AR 12673. Arrival at of CME-associated disturbance DSCOVR has no clear flux-rope signature, shock only.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2017-09-12T19:26Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.0
Dst min. in nT: -50
Dst min. time: 2017-09-13T01:00Z

Predicted Arrival Time: 2017-09-12T08:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 50.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

:Issued: 2017 Sep 11 1310 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 70911
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 11 Sep 2017, 1309UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 11 Sep 2017 until 13 Sep 2017)
SOLAR FLARES  : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 11 Sep 2017  10CM FLUX: 095 / AP: 011
PREDICTIONS FOR 12 Sep 2017  10CM FLUX: 094 / AP: 021
PREDICTIONS FOR 13 Sep 2017  10CM FLUX: 094 / AP: 008
COMMENT: Strongest flare reported in the last 24 hours was the X8.2 flare
which peaked at 16:06 UT, on September 10. This long duration flare,
originated from the Catania sunspot group 46 (NOAA AR 2673) which was, at
the moment of eruption, already partially behind the west solar limb. The
flare was associated with the EIT wave, halo CME and the shock wave which
had projected speed of about 2900 km/s.
The steep increase of the proton fluxes, with >10 MeV, > 50 MeV as well as
100MeV, associated with the X8.2 flare was observed yesterday. The proton
flux levels are slowly decreasing, but they are presently still above the
event threshold.The recently arrived data indicate that the arrival of the
CME-driven shock wave, associated with the X-class flare, might be expected
tomorrow morning (probably around 08:00 UT).
The Catania sunspot group 46 (NOAA AR 2673), which was the source of the
majority of the flaring activity during last few days, has rotated behind
the west solar limb. Therefore, we expect solar activity to be low, with at
most C-class flares.

The solar wind speed remains to be rather high, amounting about 600 km/s,
and the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is about 4 nT. The fast
solar wind, associated with the low latitude coronal hole in the northern
hemisphere which reached the central meridian in the mid-day yesterday, is
expecting to arrive at the Earth on September 13.
Geomagnetic conditions are presently quiet to unsettled. We expect active
conditions within next 24 hours due to arrival of the CME-driven shock
wave.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 033, BASED ON 19 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 10 Sep 2017
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 100
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 017
AK WINGST              : 008
ESTIMATED AP           : 008
ESTIMATED ISN          : 046, BASED ON 23 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
10  1535  1606 1631 ////// X8.2     1900 46/2673      IV/2III/2II/1 
END

BT

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Lead Time: 29.17 hour(s)
Difference: 11.43 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2017-09-11T14:16Z

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